Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Economics

This is a great article from Scientific American on the inability of economist or any stock market experts to succeesfully out guess the future.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=financial-flimflam

That should be evident from history. More interesting, when tested, individuals who know a little about a lots of things did better at forecasting than those that knew a lot about a one thing. I suspect that logic also applies to climate change as well, since we are dealing with the future, and forecasting is best done with humility and an acknowledgement of uncertainty. Something many specialized experts seem to lack.

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